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Jordan Kotick, Head-Global Technical Strategy, Barclays Capital, said there is nothing exciting about India. "Other markets look more attractive. The Nifty is likely to be in a plus or minus 200-points range in the near-term and in a consolidation building phase for the short-term."

However, he feels the markets are likely to go up to new highs. "India is one of the best looking market from a 3-5 year perspective. But investors need to be a little careful."

Kotick expects the recent US stock market outperformance to continue. He feels the rise in crude is stronger than expected. "It can top around USD 130 per barrel in the near-term."

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Jordan Kotick:

Q: Where is this market headed in the slightly shorter-term because calls are getting hoarse again about the market testing the lows it made earlier this year?

A: It’s going to be pretty important, which part of the world we are talking about. The Sensex and Nifty in India is a different story than what we are seeing in other parts of Latin America or even parts of Asia.

So, when you come to the Indian stock markets, overall, there is nothing really exciting here. The market is oscillating in a range. It is probably going to be in that range for some time, unlike other parts of the world, which have much more bullish potential.

There was a time when India was in the lead. That is not the time now. That probably won’t be the case at least back until 2009.

Q: How wide a range would you put to the market now on the Sensex and Nifty in specific?

A: If you look at the Nifty, you could probably put on about 200 points on either side of it around the 5,000 area and not really break either one of that. There would be a similar story, may be a bit more expansive, maybe 7-10% around the Sensex and look for the market to oscillate. So, you can trade the range within those percentage points. You can’t look for the big moves.

The trade you had in India last year or even the year before, that trade is done now and the bull market is done. So, it is a question of how this consolidation is going to unfold and what it is likely to do is chop off a lot of people. So, if you expect a range, you will be well positioned. But if you look for the big bull move or a big bear move, you could lose a lot of money.

Q: Are you surprised by the strength you have seen on the Dow and S&P or are in the camp that believes it was a bit of a succour rally?

A: No, we are certainly not in the camp of the succour rally. We are going to look at things more differently. We don’t think that the economy leads the stock market. We think the stock market leads the economy and the stock markets in America bottomed a couple of months ago. So, we actually like the upside.

The US stock market has been leading the way in the last 4-6 months. We expect that to continue, which is quite different from the last couple of years where the US wasn’t leading at all. So, it is not just the Dow and the S&P. In America, it is the broad market that is the real star-the New York Stock Exchange. We are seeing a lot of positive developments.

The world is very one-sided right now. It seems that everybody has some degree of bearishness and as a good contrarian when the market is that one-sided, we want to look high. Let’s not forget, the stock market has been rallying now not for a month or five weeks, but for many months now and people are just starting to realise that. So, there is further upside this summer.

Q: What kind of chances would you give to the event that the Dow actually makes a new high for itself?

A: No, we are not going that far. We believe that the broad markets will retest their highs. It depends on the segment, something like the Dow Jones Transportation, that’s almost at a new high. But for something like the S&P or the Dow, we are looking for the market to get near its high and basically stay in a rangebound environment.

But for now, we are going to look for it to get to a new high. But be careful, some parts of the US are going to new highs. Some averages around the world are already at all-time new highs like Brazil. But you have to be careful what market you are talking about because the story can be very different.

Q: Where would you say crude is heading?

A: It has been without a doubt a dramatic move. Crude has rallied this year by about 45%. Just last year, crude was actually up 100%. Two years ago, crude was up 60%. So, it has been strong and it has just gotten there very quickly.

This is not a crude oil story; this is an energy story and about heating oil and natural gas. As long as energy is doing well, we expect crude to continue to the upside, probably on for the next couple of months.

Q: Over the medium-term, what is the Sensex displaying to you? Do you think the base-case scenario should be a rangebound year for us or we might see more weakness or conversely more strength by the time we get to the end of the year?

A: Of all those stock markets around the world that we follow, over the next 3-5 years, the Sensex is one of the best looking markets for the next three to five years. It is a very good-looking stock market. But short-term you are in a big base building stage. Best-case scenario on the Sensex is you could put on 1,000-1,200 points until the end of the year and if you can end the year anywhere flat. Don’t forget, you have come 30% from the high. So, there is a lot of ground to make up. Don’t be too impatient with the Sensex, 2009 will be a different year. Let’s just keep it stable this year. The best I think you are going to see this year is a flat Sensex.

Source: Moneycontrol.com