The markets consolidated today, after yesterday's sharp rally. Midcaps outperformed the large caps yet again, the Nifty closed at 5,698, down 33 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 19,127, down 120 points. The midcap index closed up nearly a percent at 7,829.
Amitabh Chakraborty, Pres-Equity at Religare Securities has a view that that the midcaps would be moving sharply going forward because the valuation gap has widen between the large caps and the midcaps and some profit booking will happen in the large caps. “That money will get rotated in the midcaps only those where the Q2 results have been good, where the Q3 visibility would be good and the management quality is impeccable. So that is something we believe will happen and we will see that happening in January” he says.
Experts believe that in the short-term over the next few months, there will be continued volatility in the markets which has more to do with the global scenario and concerns on US recessions which are growing day by day. Global credit markets are continuing to be in a turmoil state and that’s a concern, which will certainly lead to more volatility.
Analysts feel that the participatory note issue is also having its impact over a period in terms of caped flows and FII inflows in the markets though the earnings growth trajectory remains quite strong.
Anand Tandon of Gryffon Investment Advisors, feels that for the moment, the markets are not in a hurry to reach new highs. They are near top-end of the range and the next movement would be downwards, he feels. The range is getting established and may cause a breakout in the next few weeks, Tandon said. “Since we still haven’t seen the back broken in terms of local interest in the stock market I don’t think the downside is perhaps to lock. But all said and done, the range is now getting established and there is nothing that looks like it will cause a breakout in the next few weeks, at least "
Source: Moneycontrol.com
Showing posts with label share market india news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label share market india news. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Markets recover: What's the next resistance level?
What are the views of brokerages and technical analysts on where the support and resistances for the market lie?
On speaking to technical analysts, the consensus seems to be that the intermediate downtrend has been established. The Nifty did close below the 5,700 level yesterday. Many critical support levels have been broken. But the next major level to watch out for and all seem to be unanimous on this, is 5,470-5,475.
CLSA earlier today, gave out a target of 18,275 as the next major support on the Sensex. They said that below this, a typical head-and-shoulder pattern would be formed out. In simple words, a head-and-shoulders pattern would see a huge volume build-up at the initial peak, at the peak of the market, which is at 6,000 level on the Nifty or 20,238 on the Sensex.
We saw low levels of volumes, so if this statistical support level of 18,275 is broken, a head-and-shoulders pattern may emerge, which would lead to a further downside of about a 1,000 points, where the next major support would emerge.
Technical analysts say that 5,475 would be the critical support level; 5,462 is the low of today and intermediate support levels have been broken at about 5,530.
Technical indicators like the RSI have indicated a pretty oversold market and there may be some bounce back on short covering, but all these bounce backs must be sold into and profits must be taken.
5,600-5,650 are the next major resistance levels on the top and 5,700 is the key resistance level below which the market closed yesterday.
If one does want to participate in this market, largecaps would be the safest and best bets and stocks like Reliance, L&T, NTPC and Neyveli Lignite would be the choices.
Source: Moneycontrol.com
On speaking to technical analysts, the consensus seems to be that the intermediate downtrend has been established. The Nifty did close below the 5,700 level yesterday. Many critical support levels have been broken. But the next major level to watch out for and all seem to be unanimous on this, is 5,470-5,475.
CLSA earlier today, gave out a target of 18,275 as the next major support on the Sensex. They said that below this, a typical head-and-shoulder pattern would be formed out. In simple words, a head-and-shoulders pattern would see a huge volume build-up at the initial peak, at the peak of the market, which is at 6,000 level on the Nifty or 20,238 on the Sensex.
We saw low levels of volumes, so if this statistical support level of 18,275 is broken, a head-and-shoulders pattern may emerge, which would lead to a further downside of about a 1,000 points, where the next major support would emerge.
Technical analysts say that 5,475 would be the critical support level; 5,462 is the low of today and intermediate support levels have been broken at about 5,530.
Technical indicators like the RSI have indicated a pretty oversold market and there may be some bounce back on short covering, but all these bounce backs must be sold into and profits must be taken.
5,600-5,650 are the next major resistance levels on the top and 5,700 is the key resistance level below which the market closed yesterday.
If one does want to participate in this market, largecaps would be the safest and best bets and stocks like Reliance, L&T, NTPC and Neyveli Lignite would be the choices.
Source: Moneycontrol.com
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Will tomorrow bring some signs of stability in Market?
Terrible day for the markets though the first signs were there yesterday but today was the perfect follow-up to that huge sell off that we saw yesterday but nothing like today. There was a 700-points sell off nearly on the Sensex, which has dragged us back to 18,600 levels. The Nifty has collapsed more than 200-points and got us back to sub 5,600 levels- 5,560. There has been a big largecap sell off but even more savage and perhaps more importantly there has been a huge fall in midcap and smallcaps. That’s been the outperforming end of the market and that’s where the real money has been made and starting yesterday there has been a big pullback in midcaps.
Today the Midcap index was down 4.5%. The Nifty Junior fell 5% and many of the liquid names were down between 8% and 12% particularly the stock futures. Of course there are visible signs of not just unwinding in stock futures but heavy shorting in the Nifty futures again. Today the Nifty futures discount widened to 30-points and more than 50-lakh shares got added in OI, clear signs that there has been fresh shorting once again.
One look at the screen would convince you that there has been selling from FIIs once again today in both the cash and in the futures market. The global setup is not helping us. The Yen is gone to 109 to the dollar. There is consistent pressure in the Asian markets. The European markets also opened up weak while we were trading. So things are not looking good from a global perspective and that’s only adding pressure on the margin. India has been the biggest outperformer compared to other Asian markets and now as selling comes in this out performance is beginning to weigh on our backs as we correct and catch up with some of our peers.
So the picture has not looked very good today. Large caps across the board particularly hard hit were some of the power names across the board ABB, BHEL, Tata Power, Suzlon, Siemens and they all collapsed quite a bit. MTNL, VSNL got hit; ICICI Bank had a rough day. The entire metal space led by SAIL, Sterlite, Nalco were all down and down quite sharply.
Techs did not fall too much because they fell yesterday but otherwise they were not too many places to hide in today's fall. In the midcaps space, the carnage was even more severe. Popular stocks like IFCI, TTML, and RNRL got hammered 8-10% today. The entire fertiliser space has got butchered with Chambal and Nagarjuna leading the fall. Sugar has had a nasty fall again led by Balrampur Chini and Triveni, both those stocks were down quite a bit and many of the recent high flyers like your Hotel Leela, DCB, Bongaigaon have all come off.
Popular power stocks like Neyveli, PTC, NTPC have all corrected quite significantly. So big falls in many stocks today and the magnitude of the fall is 8-12%. From their recent highs, most of the popular midcaps have probably fallen anywhere between 10% to 20% so a meaningful erosion in value has happened already. Few like SRF, Jindal Stainless and Deccan Aviation did okay.
But the one stock, which deserves mention on the way up, is Religare. It debuted on a difficult day but finally passed the test with flying colours and ended the day around Rs 550 mark, which has to go down as a spectacular debut under the current market conditions from its issue price of Rs 185. So thumbs up for Religare but the rest of the market did quite bad, closed on a bad note and the mood cannot be good. So let us hope tomorrow there is some sign of stability because we are dangerously close to that earlier support level of 5,500 on the Nifty.
Source: Moneycontrol.com
Today the Midcap index was down 4.5%. The Nifty Junior fell 5% and many of the liquid names were down between 8% and 12% particularly the stock futures. Of course there are visible signs of not just unwinding in stock futures but heavy shorting in the Nifty futures again. Today the Nifty futures discount widened to 30-points and more than 50-lakh shares got added in OI, clear signs that there has been fresh shorting once again.
One look at the screen would convince you that there has been selling from FIIs once again today in both the cash and in the futures market. The global setup is not helping us. The Yen is gone to 109 to the dollar. There is consistent pressure in the Asian markets. The European markets also opened up weak while we were trading. So things are not looking good from a global perspective and that’s only adding pressure on the margin. India has been the biggest outperformer compared to other Asian markets and now as selling comes in this out performance is beginning to weigh on our backs as we correct and catch up with some of our peers.
So the picture has not looked very good today. Large caps across the board particularly hard hit were some of the power names across the board ABB, BHEL, Tata Power, Suzlon, Siemens and they all collapsed quite a bit. MTNL, VSNL got hit; ICICI Bank had a rough day. The entire metal space led by SAIL, Sterlite, Nalco were all down and down quite sharply.
Techs did not fall too much because they fell yesterday but otherwise they were not too many places to hide in today's fall. In the midcaps space, the carnage was even more severe. Popular stocks like IFCI, TTML, and RNRL got hammered 8-10% today. The entire fertiliser space has got butchered with Chambal and Nagarjuna leading the fall. Sugar has had a nasty fall again led by Balrampur Chini and Triveni, both those stocks were down quite a bit and many of the recent high flyers like your Hotel Leela, DCB, Bongaigaon have all come off.
Popular power stocks like Neyveli, PTC, NTPC have all corrected quite significantly. So big falls in many stocks today and the magnitude of the fall is 8-12%. From their recent highs, most of the popular midcaps have probably fallen anywhere between 10% to 20% so a meaningful erosion in value has happened already. Few like SRF, Jindal Stainless and Deccan Aviation did okay.
But the one stock, which deserves mention on the way up, is Religare. It debuted on a difficult day but finally passed the test with flying colours and ended the day around Rs 550 mark, which has to go down as a spectacular debut under the current market conditions from its issue price of Rs 185. So thumbs up for Religare but the rest of the market did quite bad, closed on a bad note and the mood cannot be good. So let us hope tomorrow there is some sign of stability because we are dangerously close to that earlier support level of 5,500 on the Nifty.
Source: Moneycontrol.com
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Experts: Markets to remain volatile in November
The bulls broke their shackles in late afternoon trade today, energised by news that the Indo-US nuclear deal may indeed see the light of day. This, after the Left said it would allow the government to discuss the deal with the IAEA, a move it had been opposing for so long.
The Nifty closed 78 points higher, at 5,695, and the Sensex shut shop 298 points higher, at 19,035.
The bulls staged a strong comeback, which helped markets close with hefty gains. The day started flat, with buying seen in midcaps and smallcaps, but moved ahead with heavy buying seen in frontline banking, power and capital good stocks. The Sensex was up 350 points and the Nifty scored almost a century ending near the 5,700 mark.
On the macroeconomic front, the Left has given the nod to the government to proceed negotiations with IAEA on the nuke deal and that acted as a positive trigger. Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities said that the markets are expected to be volatile in November. He added that liquidity in the system will be quite low.
“Our call for November is that the market would be very volatile, post P-Note issue. Unless those people become FIIs, they cannot buy. So, if there is a seller in the market, no one is there to buy the stock. So, the impact cost for any selling effort will be very high. The market will become very volatile and the liquidity in the system will be quite low. Having said that, the trend is very positive and we believe that we will be seeing 6,200 on the Nifty by early December. We have to accept intra-day 600-700 points volatility,” said Chakraborty.
“I am not very worried about the political situation at this point of time. The fundamentals of India are strong enough. That gives a fillip and that is why we have seen that post the news flash, there has been some movement. But actually, we are very confident in Religare that 6,200 levels will be seen by the first week of December,” he added.
Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com said that he is not bothered by volatility or a 100-200 point movement in the Sensex. Bose observed that markets are heading towards 5,800-5,850 and there is not much worry in the short-term.
“Volatility is almost a daily affair now and we are not really bothered by 100-200 points movement in the Sensex these days. If the Nifty were to actually close above 5,700, that would be very positive. If the Nifty manages to close above 5,680, it is good enough. I am still confident that we are at least heading towards 5,800-5,850 and unless we fall again below 5,550, I do not think there is much to worry, at least in the short-term," said Bose.
The Nifty closed 78 points higher, at 5,695, and the Sensex shut shop 298 points higher, at 19,035.
The bulls staged a strong comeback, which helped markets close with hefty gains. The day started flat, with buying seen in midcaps and smallcaps, but moved ahead with heavy buying seen in frontline banking, power and capital good stocks. The Sensex was up 350 points and the Nifty scored almost a century ending near the 5,700 mark.
On the macroeconomic front, the Left has given the nod to the government to proceed negotiations with IAEA on the nuke deal and that acted as a positive trigger. Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities said that the markets are expected to be volatile in November. He added that liquidity in the system will be quite low.
“Our call for November is that the market would be very volatile, post P-Note issue. Unless those people become FIIs, they cannot buy. So, if there is a seller in the market, no one is there to buy the stock. So, the impact cost for any selling effort will be very high. The market will become very volatile and the liquidity in the system will be quite low. Having said that, the trend is very positive and we believe that we will be seeing 6,200 on the Nifty by early December. We have to accept intra-day 600-700 points volatility,” said Chakraborty.
“I am not very worried about the political situation at this point of time. The fundamentals of India are strong enough. That gives a fillip and that is why we have seen that post the news flash, there has been some movement. But actually, we are very confident in Religare that 6,200 levels will be seen by the first week of December,” he added.
Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com said that he is not bothered by volatility or a 100-200 point movement in the Sensex. Bose observed that markets are heading towards 5,800-5,850 and there is not much worry in the short-term.
“Volatility is almost a daily affair now and we are not really bothered by 100-200 points movement in the Sensex these days. If the Nifty were to actually close above 5,700, that would be very positive. If the Nifty manages to close above 5,680, it is good enough. I am still confident that we are at least heading towards 5,800-5,850 and unless we fall again below 5,550, I do not think there is much to worry, at least in the short-term," said Bose.
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