Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Buy Tata Motors

Anish Damania of Emkay Stock Brokers is of the view that in the commercial vehicle space one can buy Tata Motors. It is a dominant player in 16 tonne and the 25 tonne segment and we are seeing greater potential for this stock to surprise on the upside.

Damania told CNBC-TV18, "If I were to buy anything in the commercial vehicle space, I would prefer to buy Tata Motors because if I were to look at it, economy is still going strong nothing wrong there, some financial troubles were there because the interest rates were high and maybe some delinquencies have stated on the lending front, so there was a slowdown there. But now when we speak to our banking channels inquires have started coming in for the 16 tonne and the 25 tonne segment in which Tata Motors is more dominant. If you look at it the inquires have picked up more in the north and therefore Tata Motors being a dominant player there, we are seeing probably greater potential for Tata Motors to surprise on the upside."

He further added, "Thirdly, as we go into the next year we will have a low-based effect so which would mean that you should see early better growth than most of the expectations. So today Tata Motors is underweight in most of the funds, so I would definitely start looking at this counter."

Source: Moneycontrol.com

Stay invested in BHEL

Rahul Mohindar of viratechindia.com is of the view that short or medium-term investor should stay invested in Bharat Heavy Electricals, BHEL. The stock would steer clear about Rs 3000 mark.

Mohindar told CNBC-TV18, "In capital goods, I would pick BHEL. I think the stock would steer clear about the Rs 3000 mark. So, if one is a short or medium-term investor, I think it makes sense to be in BHEL."

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that analyst & his clients may have an interest in the stocks/sectors discussed.

Source: Moneycontrol.com

Infra to be best mkt performer in next 5 yrs

Ved Prakash Chaturvedi, MD of Tata Mutual Fund has observed that whenever there are large NFO collections in mutual funds, there has been a front run rally in midcaps. “It is not merely a coincidence that it (rally in midcaps) is happening at a point in time when the mutual fund industry is raising a large amount of money through maybe 8 or 9 NFOs. I find it difficult to believe that it happens time and again, whenever you have large NFO collections from mutual funds,” he said.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Ved Prakash Chaturvedi:

Q: Markets are almost within shouting distance of all time highs and midcaps are leading in this time around, how do you expect the next couple of months to pan out?

A: Over the past couple of years, whenever there has been an anticipation of large collection in mutual funds and when 8 or 9 large fund houses have come out with NFOs in the market at the same time, a lot of front running in midcaps has been seen and which is very interesting. I have been saying that whenever there are large NFO collections in mutual funds, there has been a front run rally in midcaps. We may be seeing some of that happening right now.

Q: You are saying you are not quite convinced by this big upmove in the midcap space and you think it might be ripe for a bit of a correction?

A: No, I am not saying that. I have said before that midcaps is where action will be in the future. So I am not for a moment saying that. I think the value gap is closing and I think clearly action is shifting to midcaps from largecaps and valuation gaps are significant.

All I am saying is that it is not merely a coincidence that it is happening at a point in time when the mutual fund industry is raising a large amount of money through maybe 8 or 9 NFOs. I find it difficult to believe that it happens time and again whenever you have large NFO collections from mutual funds.

The other point I would like to make is about the domestic retail participation. We are doing a study on the number of demat accounts that have been opened in the last one year and the last six months and also the number of additions of individual investors to mutual funds and to ULIP plans of insurance companies and if you add all this, it is a humongous number.

Indian market sees great upsides is when the Indian investor starts buying. I think some of that is happening now either directly or through ULIP plans or mutual funds and I guess some of that is really happening in the midcap segment. So my sense is that it is a combination of all this and it is all very good for the market, quite frankly.

Q: You see more upside in the near-term?

A: Let us look at the dark side, elections will start looming as we go into 2008; oil is still at USD 90 per barrel, which has always been bad news for India; the US sub-prime issues will keep coming in. There is some slowdown in the domestic economy. Given the stretched valuations, upside at least in the largecaps counters is now limited. The flow through issues relating to Sebi guidelines on P-Notes will have their impact. They have not yet had their impact. That impact will be felt over 2008. At the same time, there is fantastic amount of interest in India.

If the risk love for developed markets comes down chances are that some of the money flows will come to India and I guess that would remain good cheer. However, on the valuation front for the largecap counter, I think there would be a correction and sooner than later, we would see somewhere around the long-term median valuations coming back to the market again.

Q: What has the call been as a fund on the entire power space?

A: We were among the original fund house to be extremely bullish on the entire infrastructure sector including power and for the past three years we have been riding the infrastructure boom and power has been a very important part of our portfolio. We continue to be very positive on the infrastructure space. We still feel that five years from now when we look back on this entire period, infrastructure would have been the best performing sector in the market.

Q: What have you made of the resurgence of interest in IT, is it a good time to start buying or would you want to see what this quarter’s results show up?

A: Absolutely, we feel that the fundamental growth of IT companies has been good. We have felt that the entire rupee thing will ease out a bit; I think it is already easing out and the fundamental story will come back. Look at the divergence in performance; it is astounding, isn’t it? I was at a hedge fund conference in Singapore a couple of weeks back and I gave the example of the valuation that the infrastructure sector had in 2001 and the relative valuations that IT sector has in 2001 and their relative valuations today - to make a case for why India is ideal market for hedge funds. There is so much divergence in performance between these sectors in these two periods, isn’t it?

Source: Moneycontrol.com

New highs before Dec-end doubtful

It was a quiet day for the frontliners, but the midcaps continued to set the floor ablaze reports CNBC-TV18. Subdued global cues and profit booking pulled the Nifty down seven points with the index shutting at 5,858. The Sensex, meanwhile, ended the day 74 points lower at 19,530.

Banking and technology stocks traded weak while consumer durables capital goods, metal, oil, power stocks were in the green. BSE sector indices were trading mixed and the breadth was in favour of the advances.

The top losers of the day were VSNL, ICICI Bank, Unitech, TCS, Maruti, Wipro and Tata Motors. Meanwhile, Tata Steel, M&M, BHEL, GAIL, HPCL, PNB and Siemens were among the top gainers.

So are the markets poised for all-time highs in December? According to Anish Damania of Emkay Stock Brokers, markets could see some leveling off near the highs. “A lot of investors don’t want to take fresh positions in this month, they are all light on their positions. So at least till January they would be off. Otherwise, in terms of value buying, that keeps on happening,” he said adding that he isn’t too sure about the Sensex crossing its highs this month.

When asked whether the advantage will be for the midcaps or will the interest largely remain in the midcap space, Damania opined that the midcaps will continue to do well selectively. “I would look at the real estate sector where some of the midcaps could outshine,” he added.

Rahul Mohindar of Viratechindia.com feels that the immediate short-term outlook is a bit patchy. “It looks like the market will consolidate a lot more before going up,” he said adding that unlike 2-3 months back where one could see just a 100 points move up in a single day it’s unlikely that markets are going to see that kind of a sudden upmove coming in. “It will be a slow and steady buildup but we are likely to see newer highs, not necessarily this month. It may take up till January,” he added.

According to Mohindar, the undertone is still good. “We have stayed above the 5,800 mark which is important for us. So, the undertone remaining bullish, one should stay long on the Nifty. But if one just looks at all the indices, I think we are going to see a round of midcap out performance here,” he explained.

Source: Moneycontrol.com

Monday, December 3, 2007

Sensex likely to cross 20,000 level again

Sangeeta Purushottam, Head Institutional Business at Religare Securities expects to see a further rally from current levels since the market traditionally gives positive returns in December. She has a view that the Sensex is likely to cross the 20,000 level again due to the positive sentiment.

Sangeeta also thinks that a lot of midcaps have strong fundamental stories and are trading at discount to valuations. She adds that one can buy growth & value in the midcap space since domestic liquidity tends to favour midcaps.

Excerpts from the exclusive interview with Sangeeta Purushottam:

Q: Do you think a December rally is shaping up or do you think we will get pegged back into the range again?

A: We should see a rally from hereon as we have traditionally seen in the month of December. I don’t see any reason to believe that this year should be too different since it is not just the foreign money but also a lot of local participation, which tends to increase in December in anticipation of likely foreign flows. We are going to see a December rally this month as well.

Q: Do you see us getting back to those new highs and climbing significantly higher highs, because the last couple of times we attempted that, we have not managed to cross those 20,000 and 6,000 kinds of levels very convincingly?

A: I think we will probably cross the 20,000 level. I think we were certainly going to attempt to get to those levels once again. I can’t say whether we will cross them or not, but I think we will see overall a positive mood as we get further into the month.

Q: What has stood out this time is the breath of the market. Is it just local euphoria or do you think there is a genuine case for midcap out performance throughout December?

A: It’s a bit of both and there are a lot of the midcaps who do have good stories and as the overall market valuations have gone up, you find that many of them actually trading at a discount to these valuations with growth rates which are fairly attractive and are likely to sustain. There are fundamentally good picks across various sectors available but you get them by growth and value in the midcaps space which is largely not possible in the large cap space today. So there is a bit of that plus there is the domestic liquidity, which does tend to favour the midcaps.

Q: What is your take on what is going on in the power space? Reliance Energy and Tata Power are up 10% apiece today. How did you read the news of promoters putting in more money in Reliance Energy and what would you do with the power utilities now?

A: If you are looking at promoters putting in money in any company in general, that is seen as positive because it indicates the confidence that promoters would have and it leads to a general assessment that stocks are likely to move up from there.

But honestly, we have really not been convinced about what has been happening in the power utilities space, because I think a lot of it is really getting discounted upfront. These sectors have long gestation periods, returns are capped and to see this kind of discounting happening so much in advance of projects taking off, just doesn’t make sense. Maybe we are just being old fashioned in the way we look at it, but it is not very convincing.

Q: How are you accessing the global situation because in November when the market turned volatile, people had their eyes fixed on what was going on globally? Do you think in December we have settled down with that or can one expect some more volatility from those kinds of sources?

A: It is too early to say that we have settled down. There can be the news flow changes but there can be further bouts coming through because it really depends also on how the US earnings season goes. That will be another indication of what's actually happening there. So that could be a possible source of global volatility and I don’t think that it is over quite yet.So that’s something that will create short-term turbulence or has the potential to create short-term turbulence in our markets as well.

Q: Interest is coming back to the infrastructure space again. Stocks like GMR, Lanco, JP Associates have also started moving. Is this space as richly valued as the power utility space or your more comfortable buying into these stocks?

A: The overall story of the infrastructure sector remains fairly strong but the stocks are pricing a lot of that and most largecaps frontliners, mini sectors are fairly richly valued. That doesn’t mean that they may not get more expensive or more richly valued from hereon because the momentum of money tends to flow into certain sectors which get into fashion but there is a fair amount which is actually being captured here. On a relative basis, I would say that we are relatively more comfortable with the infrastructure space than with the utilities space.

Q: How are you looking at autos? We have seen the monthly numbers now but we have seen two stocks actually tear away with Ashok Leyland in the CV space and Maruti has been doing very well. Would you back any of these two?

A: Not really. The auto space has value in it certainly. This sector will start looking up between say the next 3 to 6 months and within that sector, there are certain segments like the car space for example which we think is going to get extremely competitive with a lot of new model launches happening and new entrants coming in over the next 12 to 18 months. So that’s going to hurt margins and consequently we think that margins have actually peaked out particularly in the car space.

There could be a rebound in the commercial vehicle numbers, which have been down but between the two leading stocks our preference really has been for Tata Motors.

Q: How would you approach the market over the next 4 to 8 weeks? Do you think the market will be driven by local momentum traders, in which case it is prudent to actually chase some of the momentum outperformers or would you seek some of the contrarian sectors which haven’t moved like IT for value? What's the better way to position yourself from a tactical perspective over the next 4 to 8 weeks?

A: If you bet on value, your horizon has to be longer than 4 to 8 weeks because you can never be sure when markets starts giving the value or the benefit it deserves. So it’s always very dangerous to bet on value with a short-term perspective. You can do that when you are investing for a year or longer than that because when you buy value, you also have to be prepared to hold on for that value to actually emerge. So tactically, momentum is likely to do better than value, particularly if you are looking at a short-term horizon.

Source: Moneycontrol.com

Buy Indian Hotels; target of Rs 215

Pinc Research is bullish on Indian Hotels and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 215, as per their report on November 30, 2007. "Indian Hotels, IHCL’s ambitious expansion plans to further consolidate its leadership position in India and establish itself in international markets, coupled with its management’s vision and execution skills, make for a strong investment case. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ recommendation with a price target of Rs 215 (cum-rights) with a 12-month investment horizon." says Pinc Research report.

Source: Moneycontrol.com

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Sensex to touch 20,200 in Dec

The markets kicked off the December series on a strong note. Powered by positive global cues and healthy buying interest in stocks across sectors, the indices surged ahead to close with handsome gains. Nifty closed at 5,763, up 128 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 19,363, up 360 points.

The markets started the new series on a positive note and ended the day on an extremely strong note. There was high turnover on both the cash and F&O side. Volatility was very low. Cues from equity markets, across the globe, were encouraging, as most of the Asian peers ended in green. Midcaps were also shining and the BSE midcap index outperformed the benchmark indices.

Sensex and Nifty are up 2.7% each. The CNX midcap index is up 4.8% and the BSE smallcap index is up 3.4%. The BSE realty index is up 8%. Among the Nifty gainers, VSNL is up 19% and Maruti is up 7%. Among the midcap gainers, Eveready Industries is up 31% and WWIL is up 29%.

All the key BSE indices ended in green led by metal, power, realty and IT indices.

DLF, Reliance Energy, Sterlite, Unitech, Nalco, Tata Power, MTNL, TCS and HDFC were among the top gainers on indices. Among the few losers were HUL, Ambuja Cements, Bajaj Auto, GSK, HPCL and Hero Honda.

Deven Choksey of K R Choksey Securities said that distributed buying is taking place in various counters and that shows an indication that the market will go up in December. He added that the range in which the market will move in December will be in the range of 18,800-20,200 levels.

“I do not know much about short covering at this point of time. Post Q2 results, investors are shuffling their portfolio and distributing their weights, across some of the stocks, which are likely to emerge as leaders. I see a kind of distributed buying taking place in various counters, which give a promise for the market to go up in the month of December. Having consolidated in the month of November, we are heading for 19,600 and 20,200 levels in this month on a higher side. The market may take some support at around 18,800 levels, which will become a kind of base level for this month. Broadly, the range will be 18,800 and around 20,000-20,200 levels, in which I see the market moving in the month of December,” said Choksey.

Source: Moneycontrol.com